On every range session, I put up one target specifically for the first cold, clean barrel shot. With some of my rifles and pisols the first shot does not vary by much. Others are totally unpredictable.
Your thoughts?

mc223,
I do the same thing but I use a new taget over the one I started with. That way I can compare the aggregate and each individual shot. Most often the aggregate is about the same size as my aggregate targets for twenty shots after the barrel is fouled and warm. The point of impact doesn't change much with any but my 357 maximum - can't really free-float the barrel on that one but if I find a way I am going to build a stock for it. I think that the free-floated barrels are less sensitive to heat than when the stock touches the barrel. The wood warps and puts pressure on the barrel which spreads the groups out.

Recently there was a discussion on removing copper fouling and on barrel break in proceedures. It is my unsubstantiated opinion that they are related to this subject as well. The reason for fouling shots is to restore some of the fouling taken out in the cleaning process. In my experience, cleaning a barrel until it is totally without any copper/powder fouling will require extra fouling rounds to restore the POI.

Rifles I have with high quality barrels that have been carefully broken in and cleaned to the point of removing excess fouling usually shoot to the same POI on the first shot. My rifles with factory barrels seldom do this until I hand lap them.

I admit this is probably a case of religious like fervor rather than scientific methodology, but, the majority of my rifles will shoot to the same POI cold and clean as they did prior to cleaning. The exception is one cantakerous 6.5-06 Ackley where the difference is a whopping 2.5" @ 100yds, takes three fouling shots and then goes subMOA for the balance. Which reminds me a lot of my third wife. Let me tell you about the third wife, the Love Nazi . . . . . . .